After what turned out to be a poor 2010 apple crop, the industry was looking forward to the 2011 forecasts. The estimates have just been released by the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA), from a conference taking place in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

The good news is that the European apple crop will increase by 5% compared to 2010, which was a bad year for apples in the EU. The European crop is forecast to reach 10,195,000 tonnes in 2011, of which the biggest increase will be seen in Poland which is expected to produce almost 500,000 tonnes more than in 2010.

Since in 2008 and 2009 the crops were respectively 11,499,000 tonnes and 10,984,000 tonnes, both figures being larger than the expected 2011 European apple crop meaning the upcoming season will still be 5% below average for the last three years.

As a result of the poor 2010 crop, this new season will start with almost no remaining stock from last year and is anticipated to be 1 to 2 weeks early because of an early blossom. However, apple quality and size should be good thanks to the favourable climatic conditions.

In terms of varieties, production of Golden Delicious is forecast to increase by 5% to 2,533,000 tonnes, Gala by 7% to 1,059,000 tonnes and Elstar is expected to be up by 19% to 429,000 tonnes. The variety Jonathan however is predicted to decrease by 21% to 221,000 tonnes and Red Delicious could fall by 4% to 635,000 tonnes.

The 2011 apple harvest should also be better in China +10% ensuring it will remain the biggest apple grower in the world, producing over 30 million tonnes, and processing more than half of the world’s apple juice supply. Production is also forecast to slightly increase in the USA +2% and rise sharply in Ukraine +17%.

We can see in the coming weeks if this announcement will have a discernible impact on apple prices and of course you can keep a track of them using Datagain.

Maxime Cournée